NCAAF Bowl Season Mega Thread

It was a perfectly chaotic playoff selection to end the four-team era, but before we get to that, we have 35 other bowl games to pick

These two things can be true at once. Florida State got screwed and the committee made the right decision.

Really it all comes down to the philosophical purpose of the playoff. Should a playoff birth be a regular season reward or should it be an elimination exercise? If we’re rewarding the four best regular season teams, then yes Florida State should be in there. If we’re in the process crowning the best team in the country, then yes Alabama should be in there.

Most years those two prepositions align and aren’t mutually exclusive. But this was not one of those years—and herein lies the inherent flaw with a four-team playoff format for a system that has five powerhouse conferences.

It is a fitting ending to a four-team playoff before the format expands to 12 teams next December. FSU becomes the first Power Five team to go undefeated, win their conference, and miss the playoff. I was rooting for chaos, and we got it.

If the four-team playoff were here to stay, I believe the playoff selection committee wouldn’t have set this precedent, allowing a one loss SEC champion to leapfrog an undefeated ACC champion into the dance.

However, the committee got it right. Alabama should be rewarded for being the first team in over two seasons to defeat the juggernaut Georgia Bulldogs. And schematically it just feels right. America’s four culturally distinct football regions are represented: the midwest (#1 Michigan), the westcoast (#2 Washington), the southwest (#3 Texas), and the southeast (#4 Alabama)—sorry northeast, but you just don’t football like the rest of the country.

It is going to be a special playoff, there is a good case for each of these teams to be the national champion, it now comes down to one proving they’re worthy above all else. But before we get to the New Year’s six bowl games and the playoffs, we have the small matter of 35 other bowl games.

Readers beware, this is intended to be a recreational guide. With the transfer portal hotter than ever, the landscape is littered with transfer opt-outs in addition to the usual NFL draft opt-outs. Some have already declared, some are yet to come. So this is the best information at time of writing, but do double-check lines and news before kickoff if you are wagering.

Shoutout to Stuckey (the self declared Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation) over at the Action Network, without his portal movement, injuries and bowl opt-out tracker these picks would have taken me many more hours (days?) to land on.

Without further ado, let’s go.

Dec. 16

Mirtle Beach Bowl—Georgia Southern (-3.5) vs. Ohio, o/u 48.5

Ohio is coming off a good 9-3 season in the MAC, but maybe it was a little too good as many of their best players are seeking a transfer to bigger programs. Ohio currently has their starting QB, RB, and WR1 in the transfer portal. This line keeps creeping up for Georgia Southern and I think it’s for good reason, take the Georgia Southern Eagles -3.5.

New Orleans Bowl—Jacksonville State (-3.5) vs. Louisiana, o/u 59.5

This was Jacksonville State’s first season in FBS and they looked the part finishing 8-4 in Conference USA. I don’t love betting on coach Rich Rodriguez (career 2-9 against the spread in bowl games), but the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns couldn’t stop a runny nose this season. Jacksonville State’s strength is running the ball, it’s the J-State Gamecocks -3.5.

Cure Bowl—Appalachian State (-6) vs. Miami (OH), o/u 45.5

The Miami of Ohio RedHawks come into this game fresh off being crowned the MAC champions, but much like their Ohio MAC compatriots, they are losing their QB1 to the transfer portal. This one screams over. App State is surprisingly dynamic on offence, Joey Aguilar is a rising star throwing this season for 3500+ yards and 33 TDs to just 6 INTs. App State’s downfall was their defence and for that reason I like the over 44.5 in this one.

New Mexico Bowl—New Mexico State (-3.5) vs. Fresno State, o/u 51.5

This is our first game without big transfer portal concerns, however there could be an injury concern. New Mexico State’s QB1 Diego Pavia banged up his elbow in the Conference USA title game against Liberty. Is he hurt or injured? I don’t know, but early signs are pointing to him playing. Assuming that doesn’t change, I’ve got to ride with the cover darlings (10-3-1 against the spread) New Mexico State Aggies -3.5.

LA Bowl—Boise State vs. UCLA (-3.5), o/u 49.5

Based on UCLA’s stout run defence (69 rushing yards/game against, just 3 rushing TDs surrendered on the season), I was leaning under even before I saw the transfer portal departures. We now have QBs on both sides in the portal and some key coaching exits for the UCLA Bruins (def coordinator and QB coach). It seems too obvious but I love the under here, under 49.5 points.

Independence Bowl—Cal vs. Texas Tech (-3), o/u 57.5

This is our first Power 5 matchup, pitting two 6-6 programs against each other. Lots of players on both sides of the ball in the transfer portal, but explosive running back Tahj Brooks will be retiring for the Red Raiders and the QB who finished the season for Cal, Fernando Mendoza, will be playing in this game. Just give me the over 57.5.

Dec. 18

Famous Toastery Bowl—Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion (-2.5), o/u 55.5

Western Kentucky let me down this season. I thought they could surprise some people this season, it just didn’t happen. With almost their entire starting offensive line in the transfer portal (LG, C, RT), I like the 6-6 Monarchs to win this one by more than a field goal, Old Dominion -2.5.

Dec. 19

Frisco Bowl—UTSA (-10) vs. Marshall, o/u 53.5

I’m afraid to go with another favourite, but I can’t pick against the UTSA Roadrunners here. Their coach, Jeff Traylor, was rumoured to draw interest from some Power 5 programs, but he’s already declared he’ll return to UTSA next season. The wheels fell off for Marshall during the second half of the season, their starting QB is in the transfer portal. UTSA -10.

Dec. 21

Boca Raton Bowl—USF vs. Syracuse (-3), o/u 60.5

Here is is folks. My first underdog. Two 6-6 teams, no major opt-outs here. South Florida’s week 3 first half against Alabama is seared into my brain, Syracuse’s sparkplug head coach Dino Babers has been fired, give me the USF Bulls +3.

Dec. 22

Gasparilla Bowl—Georgia Tech vs. UCF (-4.5), o/u 64.5

Georgia Tech and UCF were two of the most schizophrenic teams in the country this season. Both victims to pretty tough schedules, they had some ugly losses to lesser opponents and stellar wins against better opponents. It makes this game really difficult to handicap. UCF won three of their last four including a huge win against Oklahoma State (45-3). Georgia Tech hung in tough against Georgia the final week of the regular season losing by one score. Not a lot of portal action here, I’ll bet on this being a close game so I’ll take the underdog and the points, Georgia Tech +4.5.

Dec. 23

Birmingham Bowl—Troy (-7.5) vs. Duke, o/u 43.5

I’m back to the favourites. Duke has a handful of players in the portal including QB1 Riley Leonard, RB1 and several defensive playmakers (EDGE, DL, LB, DB). Troy is losing their head coach to Tulane, but most of their players are coming back, I’ll take the Sun Belt champ Troy Trojans -7.5.

Camellia Bowl—Arkansas State (-1) vs. Northern Illinois, o/u 53.5

Let’s face it, we probably won’t watch this game. But for the purpose of a pick, Arkansas State’s head coach Butch Jones is 6-1-1 against the spread in bowl games, for that reason I’m taking the Arkansas State Red Wolves -1.

Armed Forces Bowl—James Madison (-3) vs. Air Force, o/u 41.5

JMU’s miraculous season came crashing down with the disappointing week 12 loss to App State. Since then, their head coach has left to take the Indiana job and took the OC and DC with him. There is a boatload of defensive players leaving in the portal, they say they’re going to play in this game, but I wonder about their minds being elsewhere. That’s not to mention the general rule to never bet against a service academy in a game sponsored by an arms manufacturer (shoutout Lockheed Martin), Air Force +3.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl—Georgia State vs. Utah State (-1), o/u 61.5

Stud RB Marcus Carroll carried Georgia State to a bowl appearance. He’s gone in the transfer portal. Utah State QB Levi Williams is retiring from football after this game to pursue becoming a Navy Seal. That’s enough for me, Utah State Aggies -1.

68 Ventures Bowl—South Alabama -16 vs. Eastern Michigan, o/u 46.5

Eastern Michigan is largely regarded to be the worst team to get into FBS bowl game this season. I’m not going to watch this one, but pressed for a pick it is the South Alabama Jaguars -16.

Las Vegas Bowl—Utah (-7) vs. Northwestern, o/u 41.5

It’s looking like it will be Bryson Barnes under centre for the Utes with Nate Johnson likely entering the portal. This is really a tale of two teams. You couldn’t find a more disappointing 8-4 season than Utah’s and you couldn’t find a more encouraging 7-5 season than Northwestern’s. That vibe clash plays to Northwestern’s advantage, give me the Northwestern Wildcats +7.

Hawai’i Bowl—Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State (-10), o/u 53.5

I was on the wrong side of Coastal Carolina a lot this season, I won’t make that mistake again, especially with my boy Grayson McCall in the transfer portal. San Jose State surged at the end of the season forcing a three-way tie atop the Mountain West, narrowly missing out on a conference championship game birth. This is SJSU’s championship to say nothing of it being a Hawai’i homecoming for their QB Chevan Cordeiro. San Jose State Trojans -10.

Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl—Bowling Green vs. Minnesota (-3.5), o/u 38.5

Whomp, whomp. Two bad offenses, two ok defenses. Under 38.5, I guess?

First Responder Bowl—Texas State (-4) vs. Rice, o/u 60.5

I’ve been picking a lot of favorites and a lot of unders. That changes now. Texas State and Rice combined for 66.3 points/game on offence while surrendering a combined 60.5 points/game on defence. Look at that, the o/u is right on that latter number, give me the over 60.5 points in what I hope will be a Boxing Day shootout.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl—Kansas (-12.5) vs. UNLV, o/u 64.5

This one is tricky, both teams are pretty healthy, losing some players on the margins in the portal, both defences showed some holes towards the end of the season after strong starts. I’m going over here too, over 64.5 points.

Dec. 27

Military Bowl—Virginia Tech vs Tulane (-8), o/u 46.5

I was on the Green Wave for much of the season and I got crushed. Despite an impressive 11-2 record, Tulane was 5-8 against the spread. With their head coach jumping ship to take the Houston job, taking with him their OC, DC, and a bunch of position coaches, it feels like this game is just a formality for Tulane. It is uncertain at this point if QB Michael Pratt will opt for the transfer portal, but I don’t need any more convincing, Virginia Tech +8.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl—North Carolina vs. West Virginia -5.5, o/u 55.5

North Carolina finished the season ravenged by injuries, they have key players on both sides of the ball out for this one, but most importantly their QB1 Drake Maye will be sitting it out to prepare for the NFL draft. Maye’s centre will also be opting-out. West Virginia’s stud centre Zach Frazier, who is expected to one of the top centres in the draft, will be out due to a recent surgery. It’s really a tough one to predict with key players out all over the place. Pains me to do this for the cult favourite Duke’s Mayo Bowl, but I think this one is going under 55.5 points.

Holiday Bowl—Louisville (-7.5) vs. USC, o/u 57.5

Louisville being favoured by 7.5 points after their pitiful display against FSU in the ACC title game tells you all you need to know about this game. USC has totally checked out on this season, their QB1 (Caleb Williams BUST), RB1, and WR2 have already opted-out of this game. I’ll hold my nose and take the under 57.5.

Texas Bowl—Texas A&M (-3) vs. Oklahoma State, o/u 53.5

I don’t understand this line at all. Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher has been fired, their offensive coordinator just took a lateral move to Arkansas. Their transfer portal/opt-out list is as long as Santa’s list. They currently have a cumulative 5677 regular season snaps opted-out or transferring and that’s not factoring in centre Bryce Foster (753 snaps) or WR Moose Muhammad (347 snaps) who are still on the fence. I love #20 Oklahoma State +3 here, I’ll also be betting them moneyline.

Dec. 28

Fenway Bowl—SMU (-10.5) vs. Boston College, o/u 50.5

This number seem too high. Boston College was battling injuries all over the field all year long, this game is no exception with their WR1 and TE1 out. SMU’s star QB1, Preston Stone, is out for the season. It will probably be cold, wet and sloppy as they shoehorn a football field into Boston’s Fenway Park, I like under 50.5 here.

Pinstripe Bowl—Rutgers vs. Miami (-1), o/u 41.5

Not much to watch here aside from the novelty of football being playing at Yankee Stadium. Miami’s QB1 has already confirmed his transfer to Wisconsin. Rutgers’ stud CB Max Melton will opt-out for the NFL draft. I’m going to take Rutgers moneyline here because I can’t picture the Miami Hurricanes thriving in a cold weather game, but I don’t love it.

Pop-Tarts Bowl—NC State vs. Kansas State (-3), o/u 47.5

We’re getting into the good part of the schedule now, this is our first ranked-on-ranked game (#18 NC State vs. #25 K-State). The NC State Wolfpack were one of the hottest teams in the country to close the season. They won their final five games, mostly against desperate teams (Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina). K-State had an emotional win against Kansas followed by a deflating loss against Iowa State to bookend their regular season. K-State will likely be without their QB1 this game who is transferring, and their WR1 and TE1 have opted-out for the draft. All signs pointing to the Wolfpack, NC State +3.

Alamo Bowl—Arizona (-3) vs. Oklahoma, o/u 62.5

Pop-Tarts Bowl leading into the Alamo Bowl might be our best stretch of the bowl schedule before the New Years Six. This is shaping up to be a good one featuring the #14 and #12 nationally ranked teams. I was an Arizona Wildcats denier all season long but they showed me good, winning their final six games of the season. For an overachieving program like that, a bowl game means something. For a program like Oklahoma, anything but a New Years Six bowl means little. The Sooners’ OC has left to take the head coaching job at Mississippi State, back-up quarterback Jackson Arnold will likely start with QB1 Dillon Gabriel in the portal. I guess it’s not too late to switch my tune on the Wildcats, Arizona -3.

Dec. 29

Gator Bowl—Clemson (-4.5) vs. Kentucky, o/u 46.5

Clemson has three big playmakers on defence opting-out of this one—CB Nate Wiggins, LB Jeremiah Trotter, and DL Luke Orhorhoro. That trio accounted for over 1500 snaps during the regular season. I think their absence will be noticeable, meanwhile Kentucky has RB Ray Davis and CB Andru Phillips eyeing the NFL draft but they’ve committed to playing in this bowl game. I respect that. Give me Kentucky +4.5.

Tony the Tiger Bowl—Notre Dame vs. Oregon State (-6.5), o/u 42.5

Hand up, I thought head coach Marcus Freeman would be a tremendous motivator for Notre Dame. That does not seem to be the case. Bigtime playmakers (QB Sam Hartman, LB Marist Liufau, and OT Blake Fisher) for the Irish have already opted-op for the draft. With RB Audric Estime and OT Joe Alt on the fence, Notre Dame could have eight of their 11 offensive starters sitting this one out. Not a great look. It doesn’t look much better on the other sideline with two QBs transferring out of Oregon State. This one will likely disappoint, under 42.5.

Liberty Bowl—Memphis vs Iowa State (-8.5), o/u 57.5

I think this is the only true home game on the bowl schedule, the Memphis Tigers will be playing in their home stadium. This number seems out of whack for me, it’s looking like the Iowa State Cyclones will have some holes in their secondary due to injury and stud CB TJ Tampa is on opt-out watch in anticipation of the NFL draft. Give me Memphis +8 at home.

Dec. 30

Music City Bowl—Auburn (-2.5) vs. Maryland, o/u 49.5

It’s kind of fun these two got a game late in bowl season. They were two of the more frisky 5/6 loss teams in the country. Sounds like QB Taulia Tagivailoa will play for Maryland, and shoot, Auburn was able to put up 24 on Alabama’s strong defence in the Iron Bowl. I like a sneaky over 49.5 points here.

Arizona Bowl—Toledo vs. Wyoming (-3), o/u 44.5

The Barstool Arizona Bowl, a must watch for all the Stoolies out there. Sadly, I’m not going to be able to side with Big Cat and his Toledo Rockets. This will be Craig Bohl’s final game as head coach of the Wyoming Cowboys. Coach Bohl has personified Laramie, he is a modern day cowboy. I expect Wyoming to get up for this one. Heck, I’d take Wyoming -3 before even factoring Toledo’s letdown post-losing the MAC title game, oh ya and their starting QB entering the portal. Go Wyo.

Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl—Wisconsin vs. LSU (-9.5), o/u 55.5

At time of writing it’s unclear if Heisman Trophy winner, Jayden Daniels will play one more time for LSU or if he’ll opt-out to prepare for the NFL draft. I’m hopeful we’ll get one more chance to see him play, and if we do, he’ll be looking to ball out to increase his draft stock. This is to say nothing of the Wisconsin Badgers being decimated by injuries at skilled positions during the latter half of the regular season. Put me down for LSU -9.5.

Citrus Bowl—Iowa vs. Tennessee (-8.5), o/u 36.5

Through 13 games this season, Iowa unders went 11-2. The average pre-game over/under of their games was set at 34.5. Let’s ride one last time, under 36.5.

Phewf, 35 games: 13 favourites, 10 underdogs, 7 under, 5 overs.

Stay tuned for my New Years six and playoff game picks to come shortly after Christmas. Good luck to all those wagering this college bowl season and Merry Christmas, happy holidays to all.